Power Law Model

Models BTC price as a power function of network age, defining fair value, floor, and ceiling corridors. The oscillator normalizes current price position within this corridor from -1 (floor) to +1 (ceiling).

M2 Monetary Elasticity

Bitcoin has historically tracked global M2 money supply growth with amplified sensitivity. The M2-implied value represents where BTC price would be if it continued to track monetary expansion at its historical relationship.

Dual Signal

Activates when both independent valuation models agree Bitcoin is deeply undervalued. Historical instances have preceded positive twelve-month returns in the majority of cases.

Structural Regime

Structural instability detection applied to BTC returns. Unlike the S&P 500 where structural instability precedes drawdowns, in Bitcoin the relationship is inverted — structural instability has historically preceded upside continuation.

Relative Value

BTC/Gold ratio measures Bitcoin priced in ounces of gold. BTC/SPY measures relative performance against equities. BTC/M2 measures Bitcoin's share of global monetary aggregate. Z-scores indicate standard deviations from trailing average.

Halving Cycle

Bitcoin undergoes a supply halving approximately every four years. The cycle is divided into phases based on historical return patterns. Performance has varied significantly by phase.

Limitations

All models are approximations and may fail without warning. Past signal performance does not guarantee future results.

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